Solway SMR

Location and physical characteristics



Figure 1: Solway Scottish Marine Region. The thicker white line delineates the extent of the Solway SMR. For a map of all SMRs and OMRs, see Figure 5 here

Solway SMR

Coastline length (km):        777

Sea area (km2):                   3,724

Deepest point (m):              314

Shallowest point (m):         coastline

Average depth (m):             52

Tides (m):                            2.1 – 6.6

Salinity:                               33.46 – 34.04

Sea surface temperature (°C): 7.9 – 14.9

The Solway SMR is the most south-western Scottish SMR; it borders the marine regions of England and Northern Ireland and the outer boundary extends into the North Channel of the Irish Sea (Figure 1). The SMR has large tidal ranges due to the complex tidal interactions in the Irish Sea. The inner Solway Firth has a mean spring tidal range of 7-8 m (not included in the data product used in this assessment). The coastal waters in the Solway SMR are greatly influenced by the freshwater input: the region’s salinities are much lower than in many other Scottish regions and salinity changes are dominated by this freshwater input. The Solway SMR is exposed to waves from the south west, but wave heights in the coastal zone are generally small.

Holocene (current geological epoch) sea-bed sediments

The sea bed is covered by a wide range of mobile sediments, largely affected by the strength of the local tidal streams and the effects of the rise in sea level during the early Holocene. The sea bed of the North Channel, between Northern Ireland and the Scottish coast, is covered by a thin layer of sand and gravel, with extensive areas of exposed bedrock.

Pleistocene geology

There was extensive deposition during the last (Devensian or Weichselian) Pleistocene glaciation, and there is evidence of deposition from an earlier (Saalian) glaciation in parts of the SMR. During the last glaciation an ice sheet flowed down the western Irish Sea and spilt over eastwards into the shallower, eastern part. This ice sheet interfingered with the ice sheets flowing off the surrounding massifs to deposit a complex sequence of sediments across coastal fringes of the region. Much of the north-eastern Irish Sea is underlain by till, which may be over 100 m thick in the over-deepened valleys off the Cumbrian coast. These muds were deposited soon after the retreat of the ice sheet from the region, when turbid water from a distant, melting ice sheet entered the area. The variations in sea level across the region since the last glacial maximum are complex, owing to the combination of a global rise in sea level and more local isostatic changes. The latter are due to the depression and subsequent uplift of the land as a result of the changing load imposed by the ice sheet.

Solid (pre-Quaternary) geology

The Solway Firth Basin, which occupies an NE-SW syncline, is infilled largely with Permo-Triassic sediments and is less well known than the intensively-investigated East Irish Sea Basin.

Productive

The Productive Assessment has been undertaken, with a focus on 2014 – 2018, on a sectoral basis. For a number of Sectors, including aquaculture, oil and gas, carbon capture and storage, and aggregates, there was no activity within the Solway SMR during the period 2014 – 2018. However, for many sectors, there were changes over the period 2041 – 2018. For example, there has been a large decrease in the fixed engine catch of salmon and sea trout, but an increase in the value of the fishing catch  (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Changes that have taken place in the Solway SMR by Sector. Although the period 2014 – 2018 inclusive has been used where possible, there are some entries when a slightly different time period has been used.

Pressures from human activities

As part of SMA 2020, an assessment of the main pressures from human activities in each of the Scottish Marine Regions and Offshore Marine Regions was undertaken through a MASTS-led workshop. The process and outcomes are presented in detail in the Pressure from Activities section. Five main pressures identified for the Solway SMR ordered as per the MASTS-led Pressure Assessment Workshop were:

Priority [1] Pressure (FeAST classification) [2] Main healthy and biologically diverse components affected [3] Main contributing FeAST activity /activities to pressure [4] Associated productive assessments [5]
1 Removal of target species (including lethal)
  • Fishing - Bottom otter trawling and pair trawls (OTB, OTT, PTB, TB, TBN)
  • Fishing - Creeling and potting (FPO)
  • Fishing - Recreational Fishing
  • Fishing - Scallop dredging (DRB)
2 Surface abrasion
  • Fishing - Scallop dredging (DRB)
3 Removal of non-target species (including lethal)
  • Fishing - Bottom otter trawling and pair trawls (OTB, OTT, PTB, TB, TBN)
  • Fishing - Creeling and potting (FPO)
  • Fishing - Recreational Fishing
  • Fishing - Scallop dredging (DRB)
4 Sub-surface abrasion/penetration
  • Fishing - Bottom otter trawling and pair trawls (OTB, OTT, PTB, TB, TBN)
  • Fishing - Creeling and potting (FPO)
  • Fishing - Intertidal fishing (e.g. bait digging but not bivalves).
5 Underwater noise
  • Shipping

Clean and safe

The assessments cover eutrophication, hazardous substances, marine litter, noise and microbiology and algal toxins which have the potential to impact on habitats and species as well as being a consequence of human activity. Although sources of litter or contaminants may be local, there are cases when the source is some distance from the impacted area. The main findings for the Solway SMR are:

Eutrophication

There was no evidence of eutrophication as a consequence of nutrient enrichment with nutrient inputs, winter nutrient concentrations and chlorophyll concentrations all being relatively stable. In addition, dissolved oxygen concentrations are above levels required to maintain healthy marine ecosystems.

Hazardous substances

Hazardous substances (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and heavy metals (Hg, Cd and Pb)) assessments in sediment and biota (fish and shellfish) were undertaken at the scale of the five Scottish biogeographic regions: Atlantic North-West Approaches, Irish Sea (Clyde and Solway), Minches and Western Scotland, Scottish Continental Shelf and Northern North Sea. Highest contaminant concentrations were in the Irish Sea (Clyde and Solway) biogeographic region, which includes the Solway SMR, with concentrations above background and in some cases at levels where adverse effects could occur. However, most of these sites were in the Clyde SMR, with only a few sites being in the Solway SMR. Of most concern at the sites in the Solway SMR were lead in sediment, and the most toxic PCB compound (CB118) in biota, with the concentrations being unacceptable (> Effects Range Low for metals or > Environmental Assessment Criteria for CB118). However, concentrations in sediment and biota were generally stable or declining for all hazardous substances measured.

A number of biological effects were also measured and assessments undertaken at the scale of the five? Scottish biogeographic regions. Assessment of imposex in dog whelks, an indicator of TBT contamination, found that imposex at three sites in the Solway SMR indicated that concentrations of TBT in the marine environment are not causing significant harm (< Environmental Assessment Criteria). The other contaminant-specific biological effects (PAH bile metabolites and 7- ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity) were also measured at the one fish site in the Solway SMR, EROD activity did not indicate that the fish had been exposed to contaminants, although bile metabolites were above background. The external fish disease assessment, which is a general measure of fish health showed that the fish health status in the Irish Sea (Clyde and Solway) biogeographic region was satisfactory. One site in this biogeographic region was in the Solway SMR and showed the fish disease index was acceptable (< Environmental Assessment Criteria).

Marine litter

Due to the lack of assessment criteria for marine litter, beach litter and microplastic, status assessments were not possible. Microplastics are present in all SMRs, including the Solway SMR. The Solway SMR was amongst the most contaminated for microplastics in surface water.

Seafloor litter was assessed at the scale of the biogeographic regions; the Solway is included in the Irish Sea (Clyde and Solway) biogeographic region. The evidence indicates that there is no consistent trend in seafloor litter density between 2012 to 2018 inclusive for the Irish Sea (Clyde and Solway) biogeographic region.

Beach litter data were not available for Solway SMR.

Noise

There are limited noise data for the Solway SMR; no continuous noise data were collected and there were very few impulsive noise data for this region. It is not possible to do a status assessment as there are no assessment criteria to say what levels of noise are harmful, and not enough years of data to carry out a trend assessment.

Microbiology and algal toxins

There were seven bathing waters in the Solway SMR that were assessed according to levels of Escherichia coli and intestinal enterococci. Of these, four were classified as Poor in the latest classification (2018).

Escherichia coli is monitored in shellfish as a proxy of the microbiological quality of the water from shellfish production areas. Classifications are awarded according to the Food Standards Scotland (FSS) Protocol for Classification and Management of Escherichia coli. A site can be designated A, B, C, A/B or B/C, with Class A products able to go direct for human consumption. There were only three sites in the Solway SMR with two sites in the highest class (A), and the other classed as A/B.

A number of marine algal species produce biotoxins which, by accumulation in bivalve molluscs such as mussels and oysters, can cause human illness when these shellfish are eaten. Both biotoxins and phytoplankton are routinely monitored in classified shellfish production areas under Regulation (EU) 2017/625. Such monitoring takes place within the Solway SMR. No shellfish toxin event led to the closure of shellfish production areas in this area between 2010 and 2018.

Healthy and biologically diverse

This section summarises the information from the Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and intertidal and continental shelf habitats assessments from SMA2020. It also provides information from the relevant case studies relating to Priority Marine Features (PMFs), with a focus on habitats.  Further work is required to enable assessment at a SMR/OMR scale for most species; this will be included in Scotland’s next marine assessment.

At a SMR/OMR scale for MPAs the focus is on the number of new MPAs, MPAs with new spatial management measures, and MPAs in which spatial management measures are in discussion, as well as recognising monitoring that has been undertaken between 2012-2018.  For the marine habitats, the focus is on interpreting the relevant intertidal and continental shelf habitat assessments – biogenic habitats, predicted extent of physical disturbance to the seafloor  (BH3) and intertidal seagrass beds.  For PMFs, a summary is provided of the changes in our understanding of the habitats of most relevance to the Solway SMR, including changes in distribution and extent.

Marine Protected Areas

Progress in developing the Scottish MPA network

There are seven MPAs in the Solway SMR that contribute to the Scottish MPA network (see Table 1).  Some of these MPAs overlap completely or partially in terms of their spatial coverage and/or the features (habitats, species, etc.) they were set up to help conserve.  They are counted as separate MPAs because they have been established under different legislation which influences the way in which they are managed.  Also note that there are MPAs that straddle the boundaries between different SMRs/OMRs.  Where this is the case, these MPAs have been counted as contributing to the MPA network in all of the SMRs/OMRs in which they are present.  This means that the total number of MPAs in Scotland cannot be calculated through combining the SMR/OMR totals.  Please see the Marine Protected Area assessment which contains statistics for the Scottish MPA network as a whole.  

Table 1. Numbers of types of MPAs in the Solway SMR that contribute to the Scottish MPA network, including number of new MPAs introduced since 2012.

Type of MPA

Abbr.

Total no. of MPAs

No. of new MPAs 2012-2018

Nature Conservation MPA

MPA

1

1

Ramsar

-

1

0

Site of Special Scientific Interest

SSSI

2

0

Special Area of Conservation

SAC

2

0

Special Protection Area

SPA

1

0

Note that in December 2020, the existing Upper Solway Flats & Marshes SPA was extended to form the Solway Firth SPA . 

Highlights from the various MPAs include:

There are seven MPAs in the Solway SMR which mainly protect estuarine habitats and associated features, such as wintering waterbirds.  The sediments within Luce Bay  and Sands SAC range from mixed-sized boulders, deep sediments and highly mobile fringing sands, all of which support rich plant and animal communities typical of a large embayment in south-west Scotland.  The Solway Firth SAC was designated for a number of features including the estuary itself, subtidal sandbanks and reefs, as well as river and sea lamprey. It is one of the least-industrialised and most natural large estuaries in Europe. Tidal streams in the estuary are moderately strong and levels of wave energy can be high and there is considerable seasonal fluctuation in water temperature, owing to the shallow nature of the estuary. The Solway Firth SPA straddles the border between England and Scotland. The flats and marshes of the Upper Solway form one of the largest continuous areas of intertidal habitat in the UK and is an important area for wintering waterbirds (ducks, geese, swans and waders), and gulls, and is a vital link in a chain of west coast UK estuaries used by migrating waterbirds. It is home to virtually the entire Svalbard population of barnacle geese over the winter months and the wider marine waters support some of the largest populations of wintering red-throated diver and common scoter in Scotland.

Progress in managing MPAs

The progress in implementing management for MPAs in the Solway SMR is summarised in Table 2.  This includes information on where spatial management measures are in place and where they are under discussion.  It also includes information on the number of MPAs that have been monitored, whether by statutory bodies or through citizen science.

Table 2. Summary of progress in managing Marine Protected Areas in the Solway SMR Note that the spatial measures listed in the table are in addition to the protection provided as a result of consideration of activities/developments through licensing and consenting processes. Also, the monitoring of birds, mammals and habitats within SSSIs has been split out to reflect the different programmes of work.  These figures cannot be added together to provide a total number of SSSIs in which monitoring took place because of overlaps in coverage.  

Type of MPA

No. of MPAs with spatial measures in place pre-2012

No. of MPAs with new spatial measures in place 2012-2018

No. of MPAs with spatial  measures in discussion 2012-2018

No. of MPAs monitored by statutory bodies 2012-2018

No. of MPAs monitored via citizen science 2012-2018

Nature Conservation MPA

N/A

0

1

0

0

Ramsar

0

0

0

1

1

Site of Special Scientific Interest

2

0

0

Birds

0

Birds

1

Fish

1

Fish

0

Habitats

1

Habitats

0

Special Area of Conservation

2

1

1

1

0

Special Protection Area

1

0

0

0

1

Within the Solway SMR there are currently two Fisheries Orders in place for Luce Bay and Sands SAC and the wider Solway Firth, encompassing the Solway Firth SAC, Solway Firth SPA and two SSSIs. The order for Luce Bay and Sands SAC is focused on restricting demersal mobile gear in certain parts of the site, whereas the measure for the Solway Firth restricts the collection of cockles to ensure adequate prey resources for the protected birds of the SPA. Further fisheries measures are under discussion for the Solway Firth SAC.

Four of the MPAs within the SMR have been monitored by statutory bodies between 2012-2018.  The features monitored include seabed habitats, birds and fish.

Citizen science monitoring in the MPAs is carried out through the Wetland Bird Survey project organised by the British Trust for Ornithology. Wetland Bird Surveys have been carried out across three sites in the Solway to monitor species including Eurasian curlew, common redshank and common shelduck.

Information on MPA boundaries can be viewed in Marine Scotland’s NMPi. To find out more about specific MPAs, please visit NatureScot’s SiteLINK

Intertidal and continental shelf habitats

SMA2020 contains three relevant habitat assessments: intertidal seagrass beds, subtidal biogenic habitats, and the predicted extent of physical disturbance to the seafloor.  Although subtidal seagrass, maerl and blue mussel beds have been recorded within the region, no data are available on temporal changes in extent of these habitats and hence no status assessments could be made.  There are no records of serpulid aggregations, flame shell beds or horse mussel beds.  Despite the presence of intertidal seagrass beds in the region, no analysis of temporal trends could be carried out due to lack of time series data and hence the status assessment, which is dependent upon such information, could not be completed.  Modelling work was carried out as part of the assessment to predict the extent of physical disturbance to the seafloor more generally.

Predicted physical disturbance to the seafloor

To assess physical disturbance to seafloor habitats SMA2020 employed a modelling approach which generates a map of predicted relative disturbance levels from demersal fishing activity on a scale of 0 (zero) to 9 (severe).  The map was produced by the combination of information on the distribution of habitats, the sensitivity of the habitats (and species present to varying degrees) and the fishing pressure from demersal trawling, dredging and seine netting.  Fishing pressure information was derived from Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data from 2012 - 2016 and was categorised as either surface abrasion (disturbance of surface and upper layers of sediment) or sub-surface abrasion (disturbance to a depth of >3 cm).  The final predicted disturbance index utilises the greater of these two pressure values and for descriptive purposes has been categorised as no disturbance (0), low disturbance (1-4) and high disturbance (5-9).

It should be emphasised that this method does not measure disturbance to seabed habitats, but predicts relative levels of disturbance. These relative levels are dependent upon the accuracy of habitat data and sensitivity assessments.  Many of the habitat data are derived from modelling and there is a low level of confidence in its accuracy.  Geographical variation in the accuracy of the sensitivity information employed is likely to be great, being dependent upon the level and quality of information used locally.  A significant limitation of the method is that during the assessment period, pressure data were only available for vessels >12 m, which has probably resulted in an underestimation of disturbance for the SMRs.

Twelve per cent of the seafloor of the Solway SMR is predicted to experience no mobile fishery disturbance, which is the average for all SMRs and only 22% is predicted to be subject to high disturbance, which is the lowest level of any SMR (mean 50%) (Figure 3).  Patches of high predicted disturbance are scattered over the SMR and these strongly reflect the pattern of fishing pressure. The demersal fisheries prohibition within the Luce Bay and Sands SAC commenced in 2016 and so will have had little effect on the assessment, which covered the period 2012 - 2016.

Figure 3.  Predicted physical disturbance to the seafloor in the Solway SMR and prohibition areas for all mobile demersal fishing.  (Note that the prediction of physical disturbance covered the period 2012-2016 and so the fisheries prohibition relating to the Luce Bay and Sands SAC will have had little effect on this assessment, although a seasonal prohibition has been in place since 2004.)

Priority Marine Features and birds (non-PMF)

Overview of recorded PMFs and birds

The Solway SMR supports a range of PMFs and breeding seabirds as well as wintering waterbirds (i.e. waders, estuarine waterfowl, seaduck and coastal water feeding birds) as detailed in Table 3. 

Table 3: Details of PMFs, seabirds, and wintering waterbirds found in the Solway SMR

Priority Marine Features (PMFs; grouped habitats and species) and birds

No. of species/

habitats recorded

Intertidal and continental shelf habitats

10

Fish[1]

16

Mammals (regularly occurring)

6

Shellfish & other invertebrates

1

Seabirds[2] (non-PMF) – breeding

17

Wintering waterbirds[3] (non-PMF) – non-breeding

13

The Solway SMR has a total of 33 PMF habitats and species, and 30 marine bird species.  There are relatively lower PMF numbers in each of the habitat and species groups compared with other west coast SMRs.  Subtidal blue mussel beds are restricted to a few scattered locations in lochs and firths around Scotland, including the Solway Firth. Mudflats are found in the most sheltered areas of the Solway SMR, usually where large quantities of river-derived silt are deposited. The sediment is stable and animal communities are typically dominated by polychaete worms and bivalve molluscs.  The Solway SMR is important for the passage of migratory fish including sea and river lamprey, as well as salmon and sea trout, and provides an important nursery area for species such as skates and rays.  In winter, the Solway SMR is a stronghold for a variety of marine birds including surface-diving species such as red-throated diver, common scoter and goosander.  Red-throated divers tend to feed on fish, crabs and marine worms whilst common scoters feed mainly on bivalves and goosanders feed exclusively on small fish.

Progress in understanding of intertidal and continental shelf habitats listed as PMFs

Monitoring of benthic habitats continues to be relatively restricted.  During this assessment period the majority of records were collected by government organisations (SEPA, NatureScot) and focused on just two habitats (maerl and intertidal seagrass beds).

The temporal sequence of records of all PMF habitats is provided in Table 4, based on inclusion in the Marine Recorder (2021) and GeMS (2021) databases, as well as identified additional sources.  Associated commentary, however, is restricted to PMFs for which the information has the potential to inform regional marine planning.  For example, some PMFs are excluded on the basis that they are very widely distributed and for which the records represent a small proportion of their likely distribution, such as several of the kelp habitats. 

Table 4.  Temporal frequency of PMF habitat records within the Solway SMR obtained from GeMS (2021), Marine Recorder (2021) and other sources.  The numbers of All records are given, as well as those from Citizen Science (CS) surveys alone.

PMF

Year

 

<2012

2012-2018

>2018

 

All

CS

All

CS

All

CS

Blue mussel beds (intertidal)

12

0

0

0

0

0

Blue mussel beds (subtidal)

2

0

0

0

0

0

Burrowed mud

0

0

1

0

0

0

Intertidal mudflats

38

0

10

0

0

0

Kelp and seaweed communities on sublittoral sediment

16

1

10

0

0

0

Kelp beds

19

5

8

0

0

0

Maerl beds

0

0

171

0

0

0

Native oysters

4

0

0

0

1

1

Seagrass beds (intertidal)

5

0

95

0

0

0

Seagrass beds (subtidal)

7

6

0

0

0

0

Tide-swept algal communities

5

0

13

0

0

0

Tide-swept coarse sands with burrowing bivalves

1

0

0

0

0

0

Table 4 shows that citizen science surveys made a modest contribution to the knowledge of PMF distribution prior to 2012, and much less in later years.

Intertidal and subtidal seagrass beds have been recorded within the region (Figure 4).  There are pre-2012 records of intertidal seagrass beds in Loch Ryan and at four locations in Solway Firth including an extensive bed in Auchencairn Bay (Covey & Emblow, 1992).  SEPA identified two intertidal seagrass beds within Loch Ryan in 2010 and carried out baseline surveys at both in 2013 and assessed the total bed extent as 10.5 ha.  These beds form part of an ongoing Water Framework Directive monitoring programme that will enable status assessments to be undertaken in future years.  There are seven widely-distributed pre-1990 records of subtidal seagrass beds in Loch Ryan but no more recent observations of the habitat. 

Blue mussel beds are fairly widely distributed at the head of Luce Bay and on the sediment flats of the Solway Firth, where they extend into the subtidal off Southerness Point.  There have been no recent observations of the habitat.

Intertidal mudflats have been widely recorded in the embayments of the Solway Firth.  These records are mostly old (pre-2012) but have been supplemented by a 2012 survey of the Cree Estuary SSSI (ASML, 2014).

The presence of a maerl bed in the mouth of Luce Bay was confirmed by a 2012 survey of the Luce Bay and Sands SAC (Allen, Axelsson, Doran, & Dewey, 2014), which also recorded tide-swept algal communities at three locations in the bay.

Native oyster beds are known to have been present in Loch Ryan for several hundred years and the loch continues to support Scotland’s only native oyster fishery.

 

 

Figure 4.  Temporal pattern of records of selected PMF habitats for the Solway SMR.

Status and trend in grey and harbour seals

The Solway SMR is included in the Southwest Scotland seal management area (that encompasses the Clyde and Solway SMRs) and as such there are not specific assessments of the status and trend in grey and harbour seals in this SMR.  Within the combined Clyde and Solway SMRs there are relatively small numbers of both grey and harbour seals that are stable and the status of both species is assessed as ‘few or no concerns’. 

 

Climate change

There is good evidence that climate change is driving changes in the physical, chemical and biological conditions of the marine environment but the current evidence base limits the ability to draw conclusions at the scale of the individual marine regions, including the Solway SMR. This is a combination of the lack of comprehensive spatial coverage of key monitoring programmes, the relatively short time series, and the complex linkages of climate change impacts in the marine environment.

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have caused more energy to be trapped within the Earth’s atmosphere, land and ocean. Approximately 90% of this excess energy has been absorbed by the ocean, resulting in warming ocean temperatures (see Temperature assessment and Climate change Sea temperature assessment).

The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide, one of these greenhouse gases, has the additional consequence of driving a reduction in the pH of the ocean, a process known as ocean acidification (see Ocean acidification assessment and Climate change Ocean acidification assessment).

Mean sea level is rising due to increased contributions of freshwater from melting of land-based ice (glaciers and the polar ice sheets) and due to thermal expansion of water (see Sea level and tides assessment and Climate change Sea level assessment).

The warming temperatures also result in lower oxygen concentrations due to fact that warm water holds less oxygen and changes in stratification further influence oxygen concentrations (see Dissolved oxygen assessment and Climate change Dissolved oxygen assessment). Together with increased metabolic rates in organisms resulting in increased respiration, oxygen depletion has a severe impact on marine organisms due to the impact on metabolic processes.

These changes in the physical environment are also having an impact on marine life, such as changes to their metabolism, changes in seasonality and the timing of events in natural cycles, and changes in their distribution. These changes have consequences for the growth, survival and abundance of species, including those of commercial importance or critical to conservation objectives.

At present, most of these impacts are assessed at scales greater than marine regions. The Community Temperature Index combines species temperature affinity and their abundances. This index has the potential to inform how communities change due to climate change. An example of changes in the Community Temperature Index from bottom-living fishes can be found in the Fish section within Biological Impacts of Climate Change, where more information on other impacts in marine food webs can be found (such as seabirds and marine mammals) on large regional scales in Scottish waters.

Sea surface temperature in the Solway SMR has increased since 1870 by 0.04 °C per decade on average.  The rate of increase has not been constant, and in the last 30 years (1988-2017), there was no statistically significant trend observed.

Tide gauge records from around Scotland’s coast show a high degree of year-to-year change in coastal water levels (typically several centimetres). The long-term average mean sea-level change in the Solway region, as estimated from a historical climate model run (UKCP18), was 4 cm (likely range between 2 and 7 cm) higher in 2018 than the 1981-2000 average. For reference, the Scottish average is estimated to be 5 cm (likely range between 3 and 8 cm). By 2100, mean sea-level rise in the Solway SMR is anticipated to be approximately 36 cm for a medium emissions scenario (UKCP18 RCP4.5; see also and Climate change Sea level assessment).

Offshore renewable energy is an important component in respect of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.  In 2018 the total installed wind capacity in the Solway SMR was 174 MW.

Summary

The Solway SMR has seen a 23% increase in freight tonnage over the five years from 2014-2018 and a 8% increase in passenger numbers over the same period whilst the GVA for marine tourism decreased by 20% in the four years from 2014-2017.  Fixed engine salmon and sea trout catch decreased by 81% over the five years between 2014-2018, and rod and line and net and coble catch decreased by 10% over the same period.  An estimated 40 wet tonnes of seaweed were harvested annually.  There was 174MW of installed wind energy capacity in the Solway SMR in December 2019.  The value of fish catch increased by 27% over the five years between 2014-2018.  Other active sectors include water abstraction, and subsea cables.

The five main pressures affecting the SMR are Removal of target species, Surface abrasion, Removal of non-target species, Sub-surface abrasion/penetration and Underwater noise.  Other pressures identified are Barrier to species movement, Death or injury by collision below water, Electromagnetic changes, Hydrocarbon and PAH contamination, Organic enrichment, Introduction and spread of non-indigenous species, Physical change, Physical loss, Synthetic compound contamination, Visual disturbance and Water flow changes - local.

There is no evidence of eutrophication as a consequence of nutrient enrichment in this SMR. Contaminant (i.e. PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs and heavy metals) concentrations are generally above background and in some places at levels that might cause adverse biological effects. Most concern about lead in sediment, and the PCB compound CB118 concentrations in sediment and biota at some sites were unacceptable but showing a stable or declining trend.  Litter and microplastics are present and microplastic contamination is amongst the highest of any SMR.  Beach litter were not available.  There are few noise data, and it was not possible to do an assessment.  Four of the 7 bathing waters in the SMR assessed were classified as poor.  No shellfish toxin event led to closure of shellfish production in the SMR between 2010-2018.

One new MPA was designated between 2012-2018, and one new spatial management measure was put in place.  Spatial management measures were under discussion for a further two.  22% of the seafloor is predicted to have been subject to high physical disturbance and 12% subject to none.  Knowledge of a limited number of seabed habitats has improved including seagrass beds and maerl beds.  In the last 30 years there was no statistically significant trend in sea temperature rise.  Sea level in 2018 is estimated 4 cm higher than the 1981-2000 average.