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UKCP09 projections - Change (m) in significant wave height by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – autumn

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UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the change in significant wave height for Autumn to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, significant wave heights north of Scotland will decrease by about 30 cm in the winter.  The other seasons have different patterns of change, although changes are quite small.

UKCP09 Projections - Increase (°C) in winter air temperature, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level

Marine Scotland Information NMPi icon

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Precipitation and Air temperature sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the projected change in winter air temperature (50% probability level) to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenarion for Air temperature,  winter air temperatures are expected to increase by between 1.1 and 2.4ºC by the 2080s. Increases are projected to be greater on the east coast than on the west coast. Very similar values are projected for summer.  There are some regional differences in the projections.2080s. There are some regional differences.

UKCP09 Projections - Percent change in summer precipitation, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level

Marine Scotland Information NMPi icon

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Precipitation and Air temperature sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the projected change in summer precipitation (50% probability level) to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenarion for Precipitation (rainfall), over Scotland summers will become up to 20% drier, and winters 20% wetter. Overall, the central estimate is for the annual average rainfall to be about 10% less in the 2080s. There are some regional differences.

UKCP09 Projections - Increase in extreme storm surge water level (cm) by 2100, compared to 2000, for the 50-year return surge, medium emissions scenario

Marine Scotland Information NMPi icon

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the trend in extreme storm surge water level for the 50 year return surge.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, Storm surges / tides current estimates do not suggest storminess will increase significantly over Scotland making the predictions of increases in storm surge heights over the next 100 years small. For example extreme storm surges with return periods of 2, 10, 20 and 50 years are between about 1 and 3 cm by 2095. There is some regional variation.  Currently, the highest storm surge that may occur in a 50-year period raises the sea surface by between 90 and 180 cm. The effect is least on the east coast and in Shetland, and greatest on the west coast. The central estimate predicts that by 2095, these extreme water levels will have changed very little.

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