UKCP09 Projections - Increase in extreme storm surge water level (cm) by 2100, compared to 2000, for the 50-year return surge, medium emissions scenario

This map layer has been supplied directly by Marine Scotland National Marine Plan interactive. You can obtain additional information about the layer on this page

Marine Scotland Information NMPi icon

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the trend in extreme storm surge water level for the 50 year return surge.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, Storm surges / tides current estimates do not suggest storminess will increase significantly over Scotland making the predictions of increases in storm surge heights over the next 100 years small. For example extreme storm surges with return periods of 2, 10, 20 and 50 years are between about 1 and 3 cm by 2095. There is some regional variation.  Currently, the highest storm surge that may occur in a 50-year period raises the sea surface by between 90 and 180 cm. The effect is least on the east coast and in Shetland, and greatest on the west coast. The central estimate predicts that by 2095, these extreme water levels will have changed very little.

GIS Data Type: 
Web Service Information: 
Base WMS Address: http://msmap1.atkinsgeospatial.com/geoserver/ows/nmp?
Layer name:
Does this layer display time aware features: 
No
Usage Licence: 
Usage limitations: 
You agree to use the following acknowledgement on all entire and partial copies of the Data and in any publication, scientific report, paper or other product derived from the Data. © Crown Copyright 2009. The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) have been made available by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) under licence from the Met Office, UKCIP, British Atmospheric Data Centre, Newcastle University, University of East Anglia, Environment Agency, Tyndall Centre and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory. These organisations give no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the UKCP09 and do not accept any liability for loss or damage, which may arise from reliance upon the UKCP09 and any use of the UKCP09 is undertaken entirely at the users risk.