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UKCP09 Projections - Change in near bed temperature (ºC) by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – spring

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Surface and Seabed Temperature Change  sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the change in sea bed temperature for Spring up to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, sea surface temperature is projected to be between 2 and 2.5ºC warmer although in summer north and west of Scotland may be only 1ºC warmer. The autumn seems to be when most warming will be evident. At the sea bed, warming is similar as at the surface, but only on the shallow continental shelf. In the deep waters surrounding Scotland, off the shelf, temperatures are projected to change very little. There is quite a lot of both regional and seasonal variation in temperature change.
UKCP09 Projections - Rise in Relative Sea Level (cm), 2095 compared to 1985, medium emissions scenario

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the change in relative sea level.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario for relative sea level, the least predicted rise, about 30 cm by 2095, occurs in the Clyde to Skye coastal waters, as well as the inner Firth of Forth and Moray Firth. The remainder of the mainland experience approximately 35 cm rise over the same period, while the Hebrides and Orkney experience a rise of 40 cm, and about 50 cm in Shetland.
UKCP09 projections - Change (m) in significant wave height by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – autumn

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the change in significant wave height for Autumn to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, significant wave heights north of Scotland will decrease by about 30 cm in the winter.  The other seasons have different patterns of change, although changes are quite small.
UKCP09 Projections - Increase (°C) in winter air temperature, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Precipitation and Air temperature sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the projected change in winter air temperature (50% probability level) to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenarion for Air temperature,  winter air temperatures are expected to increase by between 1.1 and 2.4ºC by the 2080s. Increases are projected to be greater on the east coast than on the west coast. Very similar values are projected for summer.  There are some regional differences in the projections.2080s. There are some regional differences.
UKCP09 Projections - Percent change in summer precipitation, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Precipitation and Air temperature sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the projected change in summer precipitation (50% probability level) to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenarion for Precipitation (rainfall), over Scotland summers will become up to 20% drier, and winters 20% wetter. Overall, the central estimate is for the annual average rainfall to be about 10% less in the 2080s. There are some regional differences.
UKCP09 Projections - Increase in extreme storm surge water level (cm) by 2100, compared to 2000, for the 50-year return surge, medium emissions scenario

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the trend in extreme storm surge water level for the 50 year return surge.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, Storm surges / tides current estimates do not suggest storminess will increase significantly over Scotland making the predictions of increases in storm surge heights over the next 100 years small. For example extreme storm surges with return periods of 2, 10, 20 and 50 years are between about 1 and 3 cm by 2095. There is some regional variation.  Currently, the highest storm surge that may occur in a 50-year period raises the sea surface by between 90 and 180 cm. The effect is least on the east coast and in Shetland, and greatest on the west coast. The central estimate predicts that by 2095, these extreme water levels will have changed very little.
UKCP09 projections - Extreme water level (cm) - 2095 projection - 50-year return extreme water level above the highest astronomical tide (due to storm surge + worst case relative sea level rise

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the 2095 projection of exceedance of the Highest Astronomical Tides by 50-year return period storm surge combined with a worst case estimate of relative sea level rise.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, Storm surges / tides current estimates do not suggest storminess will increase significantly over Scotland making the predictions of increases in storm surge heights over the next 100 years small. For example extreme storm surges with return periods of 2, 10, 20 and 50 years are between about 1 and 3 cm by 2095. There is some regional variation.  Currently, the highest storm surge that may occur in a 50-year period raises the sea surface by between 90 and 180 cm. The effect is least on the east coast and in Shetland, and greatest on the west coast. The central estimate predicts that by 2095, these extreme water levels will have changed very little.
UKCP09 Projections - Change in number of days of stratification (in days) by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario. Negative days mean date moves earlier.

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the  Stratification Changes sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the Change in Total Number of Stratified Days to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario for Stratification, it is projected that it will start earlier, possibly by as much as 5 to 10 days. However, there are exceptions to this pattern, such as in the Tay / Forth area, west of the Hebrides, and some other local inshore areas. In the offshore waters, stratification will end later in the year, by possibly as much as 10 to 15 days. In inshore waters again there is quite a complex pattern in the projected changes. The length of the stratified period in offshore waters is generally 10-15 days longer than currently, with some local, inshore variation.
Oil and Gas - Undeveloped Discoveries (NSTA WMS)

This layer is a web mapping service showing unsanctioned discoveries. A discovery is any well where hydrocarbons were encountered but have not yet been developed into a production well.
Historic Marine Protected Areas (HMPAs) - protected wrecks contributing to the MPA network (HES WMS) (OSCP)

Historic Marine Protected Areas ‘Historic MPAs’ are designated under Section 67 of the Marine Scotland Act 2010 to protect marine historic assets (e.g historic shipwrecks) of national importance within Scottish territorial waters.

The Scottish Government is committed to clean, healthy, safe, productive, biologically diverse marine and coastal environments, managed to meet the long-term needs of people and nature. This includes protecting and, where appropriate, enhancing our most important historic wrecks and other marine heritage sites in such a way that they can be valued and understood. One way Scottish Ministers can achieve this is by designating nationally important marine historic assets in Scottish territorial waters as Historic Marine Protected Areas under the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010.

The data shows the boundaries of all Historic Marine Protected Areas in Scotland. You should refer to the Historic Marine Protected Area site documentation for exact locations of individual boundary points and supplementary information.

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