UKCP09 Projections - Change in start date of stratification (in days) by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario. Negative days mean date moves earlier.

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the  Stratification Changes sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the Change in the Start Date of Stratification to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario for Stratification, it is projected that it will start earlier, possibly by as much as 5 to 10 days. However, there are exceptions to this pattern, such as in the Tay / Forth area, west of the Hebrides, and some other local inshore areas. In the offshore waters, stratification will end later in the year, by possibly as much as 10 to 15 days. In inshore waters again there is quite a complex pattern in the projected changes. The length of the stratified period in offshore waters is generally 10-15 days longer than currently, with some local, inshore variation.