UKCP09 projections - Sea Level / Storm surges, Tides and Wave Height Change (medium emissions, 2080-2090 projections)

What is it: 

These layers show a sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s (see layer name for date) using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. The sub-set chosen are considered to be most relevant to marine planning and management in Scottish waters. The full suite of projections, and all emissions scenarios, can be found on the UKCP09 web site.  An update of the UKCP09 data outputs is planned for 2018.

There are nine layers available for Sea Level , Storminess, Tides and Wave Height Changes:

  1. Rise in Relative Sea Level (medium emissions scenario)
  2. Increase in extreme storm surge water level by 2100 compared to 2000 for the 50-year return surge (medium emissions scenario)
  3. Extreme Water Level by 50-year return period storm surges 1) present day; 2) 2095 projections combined with medium emissions relative sea level rise; and 3) 2095 projections combined with a worst case estimate of relative sea level rise.
  4. Change in Significant Wave Height for 1) winter; 2) spring; 3) summer, and; 4) autumn

All layers © UK Climate Projections, 2009

Links to Scotland's Marine Atlas: 
Chapter 6: Climate Change
Data originators: 
UKCP-09 UK Climate Projections
This information page is part of the theme: 
Climate Change
UKCP09 Projections - Sea Level change (medium emissions-central estimate - projected to 2095) © UK CP09 UK Climate Projections
More Information: 

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. The UKCP09 website allow users to access information on plausible changes in 21st century climate for the United Kingdom. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.

UKCP09 was produced in 2009. It is based on sophisticated scientific methods provided by the Met Office, with input from over 30 contributing organisations. UKCP09 can be used to help organisations assess potential impacts of the projected future climate and to explore adaptation options to address those impacts.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario:

Relative Sea Level - the least predicted rise, about 30 cm by 2095, occurs in the Clyde to Skye coastal waters, as well as the inner Firth of Forth and Moray Firth. The remainder of the mainland experience approximately 35 cm rise over the same period, while the Hebrides and Orkney experience a rise of 40 cm, and about 50 cm in Shetland.

Storm surges / tides - current estimates do not suggest storminess will increase significantly over Scotland making the predictions of increases in storm surge heights over the next 100 years small. For example extreme storm surges with return periods of 2, 10, 20 and 50 years are between about 1 and 3 cm by 2095. There is some regional variation.  Currently, the highest storm surge that may occur in a 50-year period raises the sea surface by between 90 and 180 cm. The effect is least on the east coast and in Shetland, and greatest on the west coast. The central estimate predicts that by 2095, these extreme water levels will have changed very little.

Wave height -  significant wave heights north of Scotland will decrease by about 30 cm in the winter.  The other seasons have different patterns of change, although changes are quite small.

This page was last modified on : 
Wednesday, August 30, 2017 - 13:57

Links and Resources

Map Type Click title for metadata and licence informationsort descending Date of data View Map
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 projections - Change (m) in significant wave height by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – autumn 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 projections - Change (m) in significant wave height by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – spring 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 projections - Change (m) in significant wave height by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – summer 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 projections - Change (m) in significant wave height by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – winter 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 projections - Extreme water level (cm) - 2095 projection - 50-year return extreme water level above the highest astronomical tide (due to storm surge + medium emissions relative sea level rise) 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 projections - Extreme water level (cm) - 2095 projection - 50-year return extreme water level above the highest astronomical tide (due to storm surge + worst case relative sea level rise 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 projections - Extreme water level (cm) - Present day baseline – 50-year return extreme water level above the highest astronomical tide (due to storm surge) 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 Projections - Increase in extreme storm surge water level (cm) by 2100, compared to 2000, for the 50-year return surge, medium emissions scenario 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 Projections - Rise in Relative Sea Level (cm), 2095 compared to 1985, medium emissions scenario 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Type Link Titlesort descending External Link
Marine Scotland Data Portal Future Climate Change Data Layers data.marine.gov.scot
Data Portals, Web link ICES Report on Ocean Climate (IROC) ocean.ices.dk
Documents, Web link ICES Reports on Ocean Climate ices.dk
Documents, Web link UKCP09 Marine regions projections report ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk
Type Title External link
Documents Committee on Climate Change - UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 www.theccc.org.uk
Documents UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 www.gov.uk
Web link UK climate change risk assessment: Government report 2012 www.gov.uk
Web link Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme www.gov.scot
Web link Adaptation Scotland adaptationscotland.org.uk