Recruitment models: diagnosis and prognosis

Probabilistic projections of future fish population dynamics and the determination of many management reference points are both driven by fishery recruitment models. In turn, these projections and reference points largely govern perceptions of the likely response of a population to fishery management action. Hence, recruitment modeling is a vital component of stock assessment as carried out for the purposes of strategic fisheries management. This review presents a synopsis of the types of recruitment model that are currently utilised in stock assessments, the reasons that certain models are habitually selected and the problems inherent in their use, and some of the key ongoing research efforts that are attempting to improve the validity of recruitment models. The need for increased multidisciplinary symbiosis in the development of recruitment models is emphasized.