UKCP09 Projections - Change in near bed temperature (ºC) by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – summer

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Surface and Seabed Temperature Change  sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the change in sea bed temperature for Summer up to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, sea surface temperature is projected to be between 2 and 2.5ºC warmer although in summer north and west of Scotland may be only 1ºC warmer. The autumn seems to be when most warming will be evident. At the sea bed, warming is similar as at the surface, but only on the shallow continental shelf. In the deep waters surrounding Scotland, off the shelf, temperatures are projected to change very little. There is quite a lot of both regional and seasonal variation in temperature change.