UKCP09 projections - Precipitation and Air temperature (medium emissions, 2080-2090 projections)

What is it: 

These layers show a sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s (see layer name for date) using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. The sub-set chosen are considered to be most relevant to marine planning and management in Scottish waters. The full suite of projections, and all emissions scenarios, can be found on the UKCP09 web site.  An update of the UKCP09 data outputs is planned for 2018.

There are five layers available for Precipitation and Air Temperature:

  1. Percent change in precipitation (50% probability level) for 1) annual mean; 2) summer, and; 3) winter
  2. Increase in air temperature (50% probability level) for 1) summer, and; 2) winter

All layers © UK Climate Projections, 2009

Links to Scotland's Marine Atlas: 
Chapter 6: Climate Change
Data originators: 
UKCP-09 UK Climate Projections
This information page is part of the theme: 
Climate Change
UKCP09 Projections - Summer Air Temperature (50% probability-medium emissions-projected to 2085) © UK-CP09 UK Climate Projections
More Information: 

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. The UKCP09 website allow users to access information on plausible changes in 21st century climate for the United Kingdom. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.

UKCP09 was produced in 2009. It is based on sophisticated scientific methods provided by the Met Office, with input from over 30 contributing organisations. UKCP09 can be used to help organisations assess potential impacts of the projected future climate and to explore adaptation options to address those impacts.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario:

Precipitation (rainfall) - over Scotland summers will become up to 20% drier, and winters 20% wetter. Overall, the central estimate is for the annual average rainfall to be about 10% less in the 2080s. There are some regional differences.

Air temperature -  winter air temperatures to increase by between 1.1 and 2.4ºC by the 2080s. Increases are projected to be greater on the east coast than on the west coast. Very similar values are projected for summer.  There are some regional differences in the projections.

This page was last modified on : 
Wednesday, August 30, 2017 - 14:49

Links and Resources

Map Type Click title for metadata and licence informationsort descending Date of data View Map
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 Projections - Increase (°C) in summer air temperature, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 Projections - Increase (°C) in winter air temperature, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 Projections - Percent change in annual mean precipitation, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 Projections - Percent change in summer precipitation, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Map Layers (NMPi) UKCP09 Projections - Percent change in winter precipitation, 2080s compared to 1970s, 50% probability level 2009-01-01 Access this map on NMPi
Type Link Titlesort descending External Link
Marine Scotland Data Portal Future Climate Change Data Layers data.marine.gov.scot
Data Portals, Web link ICES Report on Ocean Climate (IROC) ocean.ices.dk
Documents, Web link ICES Reports on Ocean Climate ices.dk
Documents, Web link UKCP09 Marine regions projections report ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk
Type Title External link
Documents Committee on Climate Change - UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 www.theccc.org.uk
Documents UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 www.gov.uk
Web link UK climate change risk assessment: Government report 2012 www.gov.uk
Web link Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme www.gov.scot
Web link Adaptation Scotland adaptationscotland.org.uk