UKCP09 projections - Sea Surface and Seabed Temperature Change (medium emissions, 2080-2090 projections)

UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. The UKCP09 website allow users to access information on plausible changes in 21st century climate for the United Kingdom. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.

UKCP09 was produced in 2009. It is based on sophisticated scientific methods provided by the Met Office, with input from over 30 contributing organisations. UKCP09 can be used to help organisations assess potential impacts of the projected future climate and to explore adaptation options to address those impacts.

Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario:

Sea surface temperature -  are projected to be between 2 and 2.5ºC warmer although in summer north and west of Scotland may be only 1ºC warmer. The autumn seems to be when most warming will be evident. At the sea bed, warming is similar as at the surface, but only on the shallow continental shelf. In the deep waters surrounding Scotland, off the shelf, temperatures are projected to change very little. There is quite a lot of both regional and seasonal variation in temperature change.

Surface salinity -  projected to decrease everywhere, and in fact around the entire north east Atlantic, by about 0.2 salinity units. This decrease is mainly due to wide scale changes in the ocean rather than the local effect of rivers. There is very little regional or seasonal variability.