UKCP09 Projections - Increase in sea surface temperature (ºC) by 2085, compared to 1975, medium emissions scenario – winter
This map layer has been supplied directly by Marine Scotland National Marine Plan interactive. You can obtain additional information about the layer on this page
UKCP09 is the name given to the UK Climate Projections. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK.This layer is part of the Sea Surface and Seabed Temperature Change sub-set of the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections up to 2090s using a medium emission scenario and, where appropriate, medium probability. It displays the change in sea surface temperature for Winter up to 2085 under a medium emissions scenario.
Summarising the anticipated changes around Scotland based on central estimate projections for 2080-90 using the medium emission scenario, sea surface temperature is projected to be between 2 and 2.5ºC warmer although in summer north and west of Scotland may be only 1ºC warmer. The autumn seems to be when most warming will be evident. At the sea bed, warming is similar as at the surface, but only on the shallow continental shelf. In the deep waters surrounding Scotland, off the shelf, temperatures are projected to change very little. There is quite a lot of both regional and seasonal variation in temperature change.