Renewable energy

Marine renewable energy and climate change

Renewable energy remains a huge opportunity and a strategic priority for the Scottish Government, playing a key role in decarbonising the energy system. In 2018, Scottish renewable electricity displaced an estimated 11.9 million tonnes of CO₂ (Scottish Government Energy Statistics Database). Cables play an important role in bringing renewable ashore (see Subsea cables assessment).

Scotland is committed to a number of important energy targets, at both a national and EU level. The Climate Change (Scotland) 2009 Act establishes a long-term framework to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, with an interim target of 42% by 2020. In addition, the Scottish Government has made a commitment to generating 50% of energy demand from renewable sources by 2030, with an interim target of 30% by 2020 in the Scottish Energy Strategy.

Latest figures for progress towards these energy targets, as of March 2020, are:

• Offshore wind, wave and tidal generation makes is the equivalent of 10% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption.
• 20.9% of total Scottish energy consumption came from renewable sources in 2018.
• 6.3% of non-electrical heat demand was generated from renewable sources in 2018.
• The equivalent of 90.0% of gross electricity consumption was from renewable sources in 2019.

(Scottish Energy Statistics, accessed May 2020).

To meet 2050 carbon reduction targets, domestic heating requirements will have to shift away from natural gas and use low carbon sources and the growth of electric vehicles will also impact demand.

National Grid (2019) scenarios for Scotland suggest a total Scottish generating capacity of between 15 and 25 GW by 2035 (10-20 GW low carbon generation). Demand in Scotland is not expected to exceed 4.7 GW by 2035 and therefore, there remains the potential to export power to other parts of the UK for a significant period of time. As of December 2019, Scotland’s installed renewable energy generating capacity is 11.8 GW, of which 981 MW was from offshore wind and 22 MW from wave and tidal energy.

Marine renewable energy: locations and installed capacity

For this assessment installed offshore marine energy is allocated to the region in which the structures are installed. Similarly, generation is allocated to the region to which its output is connected. Robin Rigg is an exception, the output comes ashore at Seaton, Cumbria, but the generation takes place in the Solway Scottish Marine Region off Dumfries and Galloway. Using this distribution method, for 2018 Dumfries and Galloway generated 40% of Scotland’s offshore wind electricity generation (note 36% could not be allocated to a Local Authority), Aberdeenshire 21% and Fife 3% (BEIS, Renewable electricity by Local Authority, September 2019).

For wave and tidal generation, Highland generates 78%, with Orkney Islands contributing 20% and Shetland Islands 2% (BEIS, Renewable electricity by Local Authority, September 2019).

The majority of offshore wind projects have been concentrated in the east and north east (Figure 2) whilst the tidal and wave projects have primarily been located in Orkney, Shetland and in the south west (Figures a and b).

Figure a: Location of wind, wave and tidal sites in Orkney and Shetland in relation to Scottish Marine Regions / Offshore Marine Region. Based on Crown Estate Scotland leases December 2019.

 

Figure b: Location of wind, wave and tidal sites in the west coast in relation to Scottish Marine Regions / Offshore Marine Region. Based on Crown Estate Scotland leases December 2019.

 

Offshore wind

Wind is vital to Scotland’s future energy generation, with 92.4% of all planned capacity for renewables coming from wind. Even though the vast majority of Scotland’s wind generation to date has come from onshore rather than offshore installations, offshore wind is likely to play more of a role in the future. In 2018, offshore wind capacity and generation more than doubled compared to 2017 (Table 1), primarily due to the Beatrice wind farm becoming operational (National Grid, 2019).

Figure c: Aberdeen Bay turbines. Photo by Rebecca Bamlett.

 

There have been several years without any significant change in installed capacity of offshore wind (Table a). Due to the scale and nature of these projects, installation can follow many years after consent is initially granted. Furthermore, new consents must follow a seabed leasing process which itself must follow a sectoral planning exercise as outlined in the National Marine Plan (2015). A new Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy is currently under development by Marine Scotland. This plan will identify new spatial Plan Options, from which new seabed leasing can be located. Accordingly, the number of projects currently in planning (Table f) is relatively low as the new plan and leasing process has not yet taken place.

Source: BEIS, Renewable electricity by Local Authority, September 2019. Notes: As noted in the source, there are many projects where generation is not available at the local authority level but are available at the wider region or country level. As such, the generation figures in Table a may be lower than those provided for Scotland as a whole.

Wave and tidal

The European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) in Orkney is a global centre of expertise with more wave and tidal energy devices having been tested there than at any single site in the world. EMEC is also at the forefront in the development of international standards for marine energy, and is forging alliances with other countries, exporting its knowledge to stimulate the development of a global marine renewables industry.

Source: BEIS: Renewable electricity by Local Authority, September 2019.

Wave Energy Scotland (WES) was established by the Scottish Government in 2014 as a collaborative model to support innovation and avoid duplication in addressing the technical challenges for wave energy of reliability, survivability, performance and affordability. It is the world’s largest wave technology programme and has maintained Scotland’s position as the leading nation in this emerging sector. In January 2019 WES announced details of the two Scottish wave energy prototypes that will be deployed in Orkney in 2020.

In February 2019, the Scottish Government’s £10 million Saltire Tidal Energy Challenge Fund was launched to drive innovation and incentivise investment in the Scottish tidal energy sector, supporting a pathway to cost reduction and commercialisation. Funding support will be provided for tidal projects to be deployed in Scottish waters by September 2020.

Scotland is home to a number of world leading tidal stream projects:

• Simec Atlantis Energy – MeyGen project in Pentland Firth (currently 6 MW installed capacity), with 86 MW of further development capacity under its seabed lease. The first 4 turbines were installed by February 2017 and by March 2020 had generated around 26 GWh of electricity according to the Offshore Energy web site.
• Nova Innovation – Shetland Tidal Array, including addition of Tesla’s battery storage technology. Under the Enabling Future Arrays in Tidal (EnFAIT) project now underway, the array will be extended from three to six turbines, with a total rated capacity of 600kW. See the Nova Innovation case study. 
• Orbital Marine Power - SR2000 turbine deployed in Orkney between October 2016 and September 2018, and next generation Orbital O2 turbine under development and due to be deployed in Orkney in 2020.

Figure d: Nova 30kW turbine in Bluemull Sound. © 2014 Nova Innovation Ltd.

What has happened since 2011?

Since 2011 when the Scottish Government published its plan for offshore wind development in Scottish Territorial Waters – Blue Seas Green Energy (Part A and Part B), three sites, identified that plan have gained consent, with Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm becoming operational in 2019 with an installed capacity of 588 MW.

Demonstration sites (new technology and <100 MW) have also progressed in Scotland since 2011. A few have been consented, with the potential to demonstrate an array of innovative and new substructure technologies. These include the 30 MW Hywind Scotland Pilot Park (located off the coast of Peterhead) which became operational in October 2017; the 50 MW Kincardine Offshore Wind Farm Project (under construction, with one turbine operational) and the 12 MW Dounreay Tri Wind Demonstration Project (currently on hold).

Figure e: depicts the locations of offshore wind project leases, the individual turbines and those still in planning (and subject to change).

 

Whilst offshore wind made up only 5.6% of the installed renewable capacity in Scotland in 2018, it was also the sector that saw the highest percentage growth when compared to 2014 and even just 2017 figures (Table c).

Source BEIS, Renewable electricity capacity and generation (Energy Trends 6.1 – quarterly), March 2020.

92.4% of all planned capacity for renewables comes from wind, even though the vast majority of Scotland’s wind capacity has come from onshore sources to date – offshore wind is likely to play more of a role in the future as onshore capacity is used up and offshore wind allows for larger scale projects. As described above, in 2018 the installed offshore wind capacity more than doubled. These projects and increased capacity have helped contribute to a £0.26 bn turnover in 2018 and contributed to around 1,700 employees in 2018. With around 4.1 GW of offshore wind pipeline capacity (consented projects not yet constructed) as of December 2019 there is great potential for this to grow (see Offshore Wind tab of the Scottish Energy Statistics Hub).

Currently, the capacity of wave and tidal in Scotland is relatively small (22 MW in December 2019). However, it is a technology that is developing – projects totalling 344 MW are in the pipeline, including the Brims Array in the Orkney islands (200 MW capacity).

Marine renewable energy by Scottish Marine Regions, the assessment regions

Information on the installed capacity and generation of offshore wind, wave and tidal energy is collated by region (Scotland, Wales etc.) and at local authority level by BEIS. However, there are some places where the information is not available at a particular level and so inconsistencies may emerge in total figures. The installed capacity figures can be assigned to the relevant Scottish Marine Region or Offshore Marine Region based on their spatial location. The latest information from the Marine Scotland Licensing Operations Team is in Table d. 2019 data are provided in the Forward Look section (Table e) to highlight the continued growth of this sector. These figures are updated based on the most recent consent or licence variations.

Source: Marine Scotland Licensing Operations Team Application details (December 2019) except for Orkney Islands 2014 wave and tidal figure from Ocean Energy Systems report. Total installed capacity 2018 includes the Beatrice Demonstration turbines which have been scheduled for decommissioning.

Note discrepancy of installed capacity. Table d provides the installed capacity figures for offshore wind, wave and tidal projects in the Scottish Marine Regions and Offshore Marine Regions whilst other tables have presented information by local authority. Generation figures are recorded where the export comes ashore. As such, depending on cable route, a project may be situated in one SMR but its generation is counted in another. Additionally, installed figures in the source for Table a do not account for variations in projects and consents. For example, the Robin Rigg project now has an installed capacity of 174 MW as two turbines were decommissioned.

Addressing the data gaps - Scottish Marine Energy Research

Due to the novel and innovative nature of wave and tidal devices, there is limited evidence regarding the potential impacts of these technologies on the marine environment. To address this, a phased approach is taken to the deployment of these technologies (see further, the draft Survey, Deploy and Monitor licensing policy guidance (April 2016)) which looks at smaller-scale deployment in low-sensitivity locations, coupled with monitoring, before scaling up of technologies to commercial-scale.

The Scottish Marine Energy Research (ScotMER) programme has been established to support ongoing, collaborative research projects to improve the understanding and assessment of the environmental and socio-economic implications of offshore renewable energy development.

ScotMER includes a process to identify high priority evidence gaps and then, where possible, facilitate research projects to address these. This research will support decision making and management by reducing uncertainty in consenting decisions and promote the sustainable development of the seas. Current projects include mapping seabird behaviour and habitat use, improving the modelling of population consequences of disturbance for marine mammals, and investigating the timing and pathways of salmon migrations.