Forth and Tay SMR

Location and physical characteristics

Figure 1: Forth and Tay Scottish Marine Region. The thicker white line delineates the extent of the Forth and Tay SMR. For a map of all SMRs and OMRs, see Figure 5 here

Coastline length (km) 775
Sea area (km2)      4,487
Deepest point (m)  97
Shallowest point (m)  coastline
Average depth (m)  39
Tides (m) 3.2 – 4.9
Salinity 33.93 – 34.51
Sea surface temperature (°C) 6.9 – 14.4

 

The Forth and Tay SMR is the most southerly Scottish Marine Region on the east coast of Scotland, extending from the border as far north as Montrose (Figure 1). This region is dominated by the presence of two of Scotland’s major estuaries: the Firth of Tay and the Firth of Forth. The river inputs in this region result in a large volume of freshwater which have considerable influence on the salinity and turbidity. Average salinity is relatively low, particularly compared to the adjacent Long Forties OMR

Away from these estuaries, the residual circulation consists of the general southward coastal flow along the east coast. Tidal currents are predominantly in the along-shore direction. This region is relatively exposed to wave climate from the North Sea, which can lead to a large swell due to the relatively long fetch.

The Forth and Tay SMR consists of a range of distinctive marine features such as the sandbanks and mudflats of the Tay and Forth estuaries, respectively, islands and partly submerged rocks including Inch Cape, the Isle of May, Inchcolm, Inchkeith, and the Bass Rock, and distinctive headlands such as Fife Ness and Fast Castle Head.

The region has a varied geology, for the most part formed of Devonian and Carboniferous rocks (410-290 million years old).

A variety of marine benthic habitats are found in the region, on substrates ranging from rocks to large areas of sand and mud. Most of the rocky habitats are moderately exposed to wave action.

The enclosed inlets and estuaries, such as the Montrose Basin, the Firths of Tay and Forth and the Eden Estuary, are relatively more sheltered and soft sediments predominate comprising extensive deposits of glacial sand.

Productive

The Productive Assessment for the Forth and Tay SMR has been undertaken on a sectoral basis, with a focus on 2014 - 2018. Historically, the Forth and Tay SMR has been a major contributor to the Scottish economy. It includes the freight ports of Dundee and Forth (Rosyth, Braefoot Bay, Burntisland, Grangemouth, Hound Point, Kirkcaldy, Leith and Methil). Anstruther and Eyemouth harbours continue to be important ports for shell fisheries. Furthermore, the Forth hosts one of the three major centres of ship building and refits in Scotland, the other two being in the Clyde SMR. There are also a number of important heritage sites including the Forth Rail Bridge World Heritage Site. There has been significant recreation and tourism in and around the Forth and Tay SMR for many years, with sailing from harbours such as Anstruther and Elie and Earlsferry.

In addition, the Bass Rock continues to provide opportunities for bird watchers with the largest colony of northern gannets in the world. For a number of Sectors, including aquaculture, oil and gas and carbon capture and storage there was no activity within the Forth and Tay SMR during the period 2014 – 2018. However, for many sectors, there were changes over the period 2014 – 2018 (Figure 2).

 

Figure 2: Changes that have taken place in the Forth and Tay SMR by Sector. Although the period 2014 – 2018 inclusive has been used where possible, there are some entries when a slightly different time period has been used.

Pressures from human activities

As part of SMA 2020, an assessment of the main pressures from human activities in each of the SMRs and OMRs was undertaken through a MASTS-led workshop. The process and outcomes are presented in detail in the Pressure from Activities section. Five main pressures identified for the Forth and Tay SMR ordered as per the MASTS-led Pressure Assessment Workshop were

Priority [1] Pressure (FeAST classification) [2] Main healthy and biologically diverse components affected [3] Main contributing FeAST activity /activities to pressure [4] Associated productive assessments [5]
1 Removal of target species (including lethal)
  • Fishing - Bottom otter trawling and pair trawls (OTB, OTT, PTB, TB, TBN)
  • Fishing - Creeling and potting (FPO)
  • Fishing - Scallop dredging (DRB)
2 Removal of non-target species (including lethal)
  • Fishing - Bottom otter trawling and pair trawls (OTB, OTT, PTB, TB, TBN)
  • Fishing - Creeling and potting (FPO)
  • Fishing - Scallop dredging (DRB)
3 Physical change (to another seabed type)
  • Extraction – Dredging (capital and maintenance)
  • Fishing - Scallop dredging (DRB)
4 Surface/Sub-surface abrasion/penetration
  • Extraction – Dredging (capital and maintenance)
  • Fishing - Bottom otter trawling and pair trawls (OTB, OTT, PTB, TB, TBN)
  • Fishing - Creeling and potting (FPO)
  • Fishing - Scallop dredging (DRB)
5 Underwater noise
  • Extraction – Dredging (capital and maintenance)
  • Fishing – any gear
  • Infrastructure - Coastal (ports, marinas, leisure facilities)
  • Military activities – Sonar use
  • Shipping
  • Tourism & recreation

Clean and safe

The assessments cover eutrophication, hazardous substances, marine litter, noise and microbiology and algal toxins which have the potential to impact on habitats and species as well as being a consequence of human activity. Although sources of litter or contaminants may be local, there are cases when the source is some distance from the impacted area. The main findings for the Forth and Tay SMR are:

Eutrophication

Nutrient inputs were some of the highest of all of the SMRs. Chlorophyll concentrations were also highest in this SMR, and there was an increasing trend. However, overall the Forth and Tay SMR showed no evidence of eutrophication as a consequence of nutrient enrichment, with nutrient inputs and winter nutrient concentrations remaining relatively stable. In addition, dissolved oxygen concentrations at the seabed met the  assessment thresholds for minimal risk of ecological impacts.

Hazardous substances

Hazardous substances (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and heavy metals (Hg, Cd and Pb)) assessments in sediment and biota (fish and shellfish) were undertaken at the scale of the five Scottish biogeographic regions: Atlantic North-West Approaches, Irish Sea (Clyde and Solway), Minches and Western Scotland, Scottish Continental Shelf and Northern North Sea. The Forth and Tay SMR is in the Northern North Sea biogeographic region. Contaminant concentrations in the Northern North Sea biogeographic region were generally above background but below concentrations where adverse effects could occur. In addition, concentrations in sediment and biota were stable or declining for all hazardous substances measured. Where there were exceedances in the Northern North Sea biogeographic region these were mainly in the Forth and Tay SMR. Of most concern were lead and mercury levels in sediment, and PCBs in sediment and biota, with concentrations being unacceptable at some stations (> Effects Range Low for metals or > Environmental Assessment Criteria for PCBs). Metal inputs were some of the highest across all regions but stable.

A number of biological effects were also measured and assessments undertaken at the scale of the five Scottish biogeographic regions. Assessment of imposex in dog whelks, an indicator of TBT contamination, found that imposex at most sites in the Forth and Tay SMR indicated that concentrations of TBT in the marine environment are not causing significant harm (< Environmental Assessment Criteria). However, imposex at one of the four sites from the Forth and Tay SMR was at an unacceptable level (> Environmental Assessment Criteria). The other contaminant specific biological effects (PAH bile metabolites and 7- ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity) were consistent with the hazardous substances and showed a limited exposure to contaminants. The external fish disease assessment is a general measure of fish health. The Northern North Sea biogeographic region showed an increase in fish disease in some years but this could not be linked to exposure to contaminants. In addition, the fish disease index was exceeded at all sites in the Forth and Tay SMR in the most recent annual assessment status.

Marine litter

Due to the lack of assessment criteria for marine litter, beach litter and microplastic, status assessments were not possible. However, litter and microplastics are present in all SMRs, including the Forth and Tay. The Forth and Tay SMR was amongst the most contaminated for microplastics in surface water.

Seafloor litter was assessed at the scale of the biogeographic regions; the Forth and Tay SMR is included in the Northern North Sea biogeographic region. The evidence indicates that there is no consistent trend in seafloor litter density between 2012 to 2018 inclusive for the Northern North Sea Biogeographic region.

Beach litter was highest in Firth of Forth harbours and sanitary items are increasing here. However, some categories of beach litter were decreasing in the Firth of Forth (plastic bags and plastic bottles).

Noise

There are limited noise data for the Forth and Tay SMR. Continuous noise data were collected in 2013 and 2014 as part of the East Coast Marine Mammal Acoustic Study (ECOMMAS). Overall, the continuous noise levels at each site, including those in the Forth and Tay SMR, are broadly similar. Noise levels in the 125 Hz one-third octave band are predominantly within the range 80 – 120 dB re 1 μPa rms, and the modes of these distributions lie between 84 – 95 dB re 1 μPa rms. There are very few impulsive noise data, but it is likely that impulsive noise may increase in the Forth and Tay SMR; offshore wind farm construction work is likely to use impact pile driving, which will increase the levels of impulsive noise. It is not possible to do a status assessment as there are no assessment criteria to say what levels of noise are harmful, and not enough years of data to carry out a trend assessment.

Microbiology and algal toxins

A number of bathing waters in the Forth and Tay SMR are assessed according to levels of Escherichia coli and intestinal enterococci. Of these, three were classified as Poor in the latest classification (2018).

Escherichia coli is monitored in shellfish as a proxy of the microbiological quality of the water from shellfish production areas. Classifications are awarded according to the Food Standards Scotland (FSS) Protocol for Classification and Management of Escherichia coli. A site can be designated A, B, C, A/B or B/C, with Class A products able to go direct for human consumption. In the Forth and Tay SMR 33% of production areas were in the highest class (A), and 50% were class B, and no areas had prohibited levels of Escherichia coli.

A number of marine algal species produce biotoxins which, by accumulation in bivalve molluscs such as mussels and oysters, can cause human illness when these shellfish are eaten. Both biotoxins and phytoplankton are routinely monitored in classified shellfish production areas under Regulation (EU) 2017/625. Such monitoring takes place at several sites within the Forth and Tay SMR. Concentrations of diarrhetic shellfish toxins exceeded regulatory limits (RL) in the Forth and Tay SMR in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018, with the highest proportion of breaches (27% of samples tested) occurring in 2014. Paralytic shellfish toxins above RL were only reported in 2013, and no samples exceeded RL for amnesic shellfish toxins.

Healthy and biologically diverse

This section summarises the information from the Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and intertidal and continental shelf habitats assessments from SMA2020. It also provides information from the relevant case studies relating to Priority Marine Features (PMFs), with a focus on habitats.  Further work is required to enable assessment at a regional scale for most species; this will be included in Scotland’s next marine assessment.

At a regional scale for MPAs the focus is on the number of new MPAs, MPAs with new spatial management measures, and MPAs in which spatial management measures are in discussion, as well as recognising monitoring that has been undertaken between 2012-2018.  For the marine habitats, the focus is on interpreting the relevant intertidal and continental shelf habitat assessments – biogenic habitats, predicted extent of physical disturbance to the seafloor (BH3), and intertidal seagrass beds.  For PMFs, a summary is provided of the changes in our understanding of the habitats of most relevance to the Forth and Tay SMR, including changes in distribution and extent.

Marine Protected Areas

Progress in developing the Scottish MPA network

There are 16 MPAs in the Forth & Tay SMR that contribute to the Scottish MPA network (see Table 1).  Some of these MPAs overlap completely or partially in terms of their spatial coverage and/or the features (habitats, species, etc.) they were set up to help conserve.  They are counted as separate MPAs because they have been established under different legislation which influences the way in which they are managed.  Also note that there are MPAs that straddle the boundaries between different SMRs/OMRs.  Where this is the case, these MPAs have been counted as contributing to the MPA network in all of the SMRs/OMRs in which they are present.  This means that the total number of MPAs in Scotland cannot be calculated through combining the SMR/OMR totals.  Please see the Marine Protected Area assessment which contains statistics for the Scottish MPA network as a whole.  

Table 1. Numbers of types of MPAs in the Forth & Tay SMR that contribute to the Scottish MPA network, including the number of new MPAs introduced since 2012.

Type of MPA

Abbr.

Total no. of MPAs

No. of new MPAs 2012-2018

Historic MPA

HMPA

1

1

Nature Conservation MPA

MPA

1

1

Ramsar

-

2

0

Site of Special Scientific Interest

SSSI

9

0

Special Area of Conservation

SAC

3

0

Special Protection Area

SPA

5

0

Note that in December 2020 there was another one SPA designated in this region in addition to those in the table above (Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex).

Highlights from the various MPAs include:   

Within the Forth & Tay SMR the majority of MPAs are focused on the protection of marine birds and their supporting habitats including intertidal areas and islands.  The Tay and Eden estuaries and the Montrose Basin, along with many of the intertidal areas of the Forth Estuary, support nationally and internationally important populations of wildfowl and wading birds, including pink-footed goose, common redshank, red knot, dunlin and Eurasian oystercatcher, within a number of SPAs, Ramsar sites, and SSSIs. The Forth Islands SPA supports internationally important numbers of seabirds, including the largest breeding northern gannet colony in the world on Bass Rock.   Rare roseate terns have recently bred on the Isle of May – the only place in Scotland where they breed.  There are important grey seal breeding sites on the Isle of May and at Fast Castle Head.  The Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SAC was designated for its harbour seal population, but numbers along much of the east coast have declined dramatically since 2001.   The East Coast of Scotland Other Area Based Measure covers an extensive area (21,320 km2) for the conservation of sandeels, in recognition of their importance as a prey species of various seabirds including black-legged kittiwake. 



Progress in managing MPAs

The progress in implementing management for MPAs in the Forth & Tay SMR is summarised in Table 2.  This includes information on where spatial management measures are in place and where they are under discussion.  It also includes information on the number of MPAs that have been monitored, whether by statutory bodies or through citizen science.

Table 2. Summary of progress in managing Marine Protected Areas in the Forth & Tay SMR

Note that the spatial measures listed in the table are in addition to the protection provided as a result of consideration of activities/developments through licensing and consenting processes. Also, the monitoring of birds, mammals and habitats within SSSIs and SACs has been split out to reflect the different programmes of work.  These figures cannot be added together to provide a total number of SSSIs and SACs in which monitoring took place because of overlaps in coverage.  

Type of MPA

Spatial measures in place pre-2012

New spatial measures in place 2012-2018

Spatial  measures in discussion 2012-2018

No. of MPAs monitored by statutory bodies 2012-2018

No. of MPAs monitored via citizen science 2012-2018

Nature Conservation MPA

N/A

0

2

0

0

Ramsar

0

0

0

0

3

Site of Special Scientific Interest

1

0

0

Birds

5

Birds

5

Mammals

2

Mammals

0

Habitats

1

Habitats

1

Special Area of Conservation

1

0

2

Mammals

3

Mammals

0

Habitats

1

Habitats

2

Special Protection Area

1

0

0

4

4

The Firth of Forth Nature Conservation Order covers the Firth of Forth SPA and SSSI and prevents the collection of cockles except for personal and scientific purposes. This was put in place in relation to the protected bird species using the Firth of Forth SPA and SSSI. Elsewhere in the region there is a fisheries order for Berwickshire and North Northumberland SAC, which also encompasses the Eyemouth and St Abbs Voluntary Marine Reserve. This restricts use of demersal mobile gear to one nautical mile from mean high water springs. There is also a Fisheries Order in place that restricts demersal mobile gear in part of the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SAC. Further management measures are under discussion for the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SAC and the Isle of May SAC.

During this assessment period the majority of the MPAs have been monitored at least once by the statutory bodies.  Monitoring has covered seabirds, wintering waterbirds, mammals and subtidal habitats.  Monitoring of some sites has been carried out through agreements with organisations such as the Sea Mammal Research Unit, Scottish Wildlife Trust and the National Trust for Scotland.

Thirteen Ramsar, SSSI and SPA sites have been monitored by citizen science in the Forth and Tay SMR. Monitoring in the Forth Islands SPA is carried out by the Forth Seabird Group and they monitor all the protected features of this site, i.e. Atlantic puffins, common guillemots and sandwich terns, except for northern gannets. Monitoring of the other sites designated for birds is carried out through the Wetland Bird Survey project organised by the British Trust for Ornithology. Reefs in the Berwickshire and North Northumberland Coast SAC and the Isle of May SAC are monitored by Seasearch. The Firth of Forth SSSI has been monitored through surveys carried out as part of The Shore Thing, an initiative of the Marine Biological Association.

Information on MPA boundaries can be viewed in Marine Scotland’s NMPi. To find out more about specific MPAs, please visit NatureScot’s SiteLINK. Detailed reports on habitat monitoring are referenced in Further reading – seabed habitat monitoring reports.

Intertidal and continental shelf habitats

SMA2020 contains three relevant habitat assessments: intertidal seagrass beds, subtidal biogenic habitats, and predicted extent of physical disturbance to the seafloor.  Assessment of the status of subtidal biogenic habitats is based on temporal reductions in extent of six habitat types: seagrass beds, serpulid aggregations, flame shell beds, maerl beds and horse and blue mussel beds.  Of these habitats, only blue mussel and horse mussel beds have been recorded in the SMR.  However, no assessment was possible due to the lack of temporal data on which the method relies.  SMA2020 did, however, include the results of a programme of trial sampling of intertidal seagrass beds to determine their ecological status or health, and modelling work was carried out to predict the extent of physical disturbance to the seafloor more generally.

Intertidal seagrass

The methodology involved the employment of the Water Framework Directive seagrass tool (WFD-UKTAG, 2014) which provides an assessment of ecological status for a water body based on temporal changes in seagrass bed extent, percentage cover and the number of seagrass species present. The tool permits the calculation of the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) which can be divided into bands ranging from 0.8 - 1 (high status - zero or minimal disturbance) to 0.0 – 0.2 (bad status – severe disturbance).

SEPA carried out repeat surveys at four locations (Eden Estuary, Montrose Basin, Lower and Middle Forth Estuary) and recorded little or no reduction in habitat extent (Table 3).  Increases were considered to be possibly influenced by changes in the intensity of surveying and the availability of aerial imagery to aid bed extent measurement for some surveys.  Temporal variation in percentage cover was in part possibly explicable in terms of natural variation.

Despite all four water bodies lying within the high ecological status band (Table 3), the overall SMA2020 assessment for the SMR was “Lack of evidence/robust assessment criteria” due to the low number of surveys carried out.  To reduce the significance of natural, inter-annual variability ideally surveying should be performed annually and trends identified using a five-year rolling mean.  Also, some of the temporal change observed may be due to methodological change, particularly regarding the intensity of surveying and so additional work is required before a firm status assessment of intertidal seagrass within the SMR is possible. 

Table 3.  Classification of the health or status of water bodies based on application of the WFD seagrass tool with survey details.  Status is quantified by the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) and ascribed to a corresponding status class band.

Water body

Month/Year surveyed

Area (m2)

Average % cover

EQR

Class

Eden Estuary

Jul-13

172,200

28.2

1.00

High

Aug-15

558,800

29

Montrose Basin

Jul-13

1,747,000

41.8

0.92

High

Aug-17

2,793,416

36

Lower Forth Estuary

Aug-14

349,264

57.6

0.87

High

Aug-18

331,475

44.9

Middle Forth Estuary

Aug-14

201,339

53.3

0.89

High

Aug-18

192,299

50.7

Predicted physical disturbance to the seafloor

To assess physical disturbance to seafloor habitats SMA2020 employed a modelling approach which generates a map of predicted relative disturbance levels from demersal fishing activity on a scale of 0 (zero) to 9 (severe).  The map was produced by the combination of information on the distribution of habitats, the sensitivity of the habitats (and species present to varying degrees) and the fishing pressure from demersal trawling, dredging and seine netting.  Fishing pressure information was derived from Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data from 2012 - 2016 and was categorised as either surface abrasion (disturbance of surface and upper layers of sediment) or sub-surface abrasion (disturbance to a depth of >3 cm).  The final predicted disturbance index utilises the greater of these two pressure values and for descriptive purposes has been categorised as no disturbance (0), low disturbance (1-4) and high disturbance (5-9).

It should be emphasised that this method does not measure disturbance to seabed habitats but predicts relative levels of disturbance. These relative levels are dependent upon the accuracy of habitat data and sensitivity assessments.  Many of the habitat data are derived from modelling and there is a low level of confidence in its accuracy.  Geographical variation in the accuracy of the sensitivity information employed is likely to be great, being dependent upon the level and quality of information used locally.  A significant limitation of the method is that during the assessment period pressure data were only available for vessels >12 m, which has probably resulted in an underestimation of disturbance.

Predicted habitat disturbance by mobile demersal fishing for the Forth and Tay SMR is average for SMRs in terms of the proportion of the seabed with 48% high disturbance compared to an average of 50% for all SMRs (Figure 3).  Thirteen per cent of the seabed is predicted to experience no disturbance (average of 12% for all SMRs).  High predicted disturbance levels closely mirror surface abrasion pressure (and to a lesser extent subsurface abrasion pressure) and are mainly concentrated on the muddy Nephrops grounds of the Firth of Forth, with smaller patches on harder sediments north of this.

Figure 3.  Predicted physical disturbance to the seafloor in the Forth and Tay SMR and prohibition areas for all mobile demersal fishing.

Priority Marine Features and birds (non-PMF)

Overview of recorded PMFs and birds

The Forth & Tay SMR supports a range of PMFs and breeding seabirds as well as wintering waterbirds (i.e. waders, estuarine waterfowl, seaduck and coastal water feeding birds) as detailed in Table 3. 

Table 3: Details of PMFs, seabirds, and wintering waterbirds found in the Forth & Tay SMR

Priority Marine Features (PMFs; grouped habitats and species) and birds

No. of species/

habitats recorded

Intertidal and continental shelf habitats

9

Fish[1]

18

Mammals (regularly occurring)

9

Shellfish & other invertebrates

1

Seabirds[2] (non-PMF) – breeding

19

Wintering waterbirds[3] (non-PMF) – non-breeding

14

There are 37 PMFs and 33 species of marine birds recorded in this region, which is relatively low compared to SMRs on the west coast.  There are, however, a number of records of intertidal and benthic habitat PMFs not commonly found on the east coast, as well as large areas of specific PMFs such as intertidal mudflats in the Montrose Basin, the Firth of Tay and the Firth of Forth.  The Firth of Tay is one of the few locations around Scotland where Mytilus edulis beds on sublittoral sediment are found and the most southerly record of horse mussel beds on the east coast of Scotland is off the Berwickshire coast.

Progress in understanding of intertidal and continental shelf habitats listed as PMFs

The temporal sequence of records of all PMF habitats is provided in Table 4, based on inclusion in the Marine Recorder (2021) and GeMS (2021) databases, as well as identified additional sources.  Associated commentary, however, is restricted to PMFs for which the information has the potential to inform regional marine planning.  For example, some PMFs are excluded on the basis that they are very widely distributed and for which the records represent a small proportion of their likely distribution, such as several of the kelp habitats.  The geographical distribution of records of selected PMFs is shown in Figure 4.

Much of the earlier work in this region focused on investigations of the distribution and condition of habitats, particularly in relation to broadscale habitat mapping and monitoring of SACs.  Since 2012 Seasearch divers have carried out eight surveys in the SMR, supplementing knowledge of the distribution of kelp beds, but otherwise little work on PMF habitats has been carried out, apart from SEPA monitoring of seagrass beds. 

The 2013 - 2018 SEPA seagrass surveys have contributed greatly to knowledge of habitat distribution and condition in the Firth of Forth, Eden Estuary and Montrose Basin areas and represent the establishment of an ongoing programme for monitoring habitat health.  A 2020 East Lothian Council survey of Bellhaven Bay has contributed many records for a previously undocumented intertidal seagrass bed (Seagrass Spotter, 2021).

Other recent PMF habitat finds off St Abb’s Head include a horse mussel bed (Heriot-Watt University, 2014 unpublished) and a 2016 Seasearch record of a tide-swept algal community.

Table 4.  Temporal frequency of PMF habitat records within the Forth and Tay  SMR obtained from GeMS (2021), Marine Recorder (2021) and other sources.  The numbers of All records are given, as well as those from Citizen Science (CS) surveys alone.

PMF

<2012

2012-2018

>2018

 

All

CS

All

CS

All

CS

Blue mussel beds (intertidal)

40

0

0

0

0

0

Blue mussel beds (subtidal)

25

0

0

0

0

0

Burrowed mud

8

0

0

0

0

0

Horse mussel beds

1

0

1

0

0

0

Intertidal mudflats

70

0

0

0

0

0

Kelp and seaweed communities on sublittoral sediment

5

0

3

3

0

0

Kelp beds

91

25

44

44

9

9

Maerl or coarse shell gravel with burrowing sea cucumbers

1

0

0

0

0

0

Seagrass beds (intertidal)

43

0

672

0

39

2

Tide-swept algal communities and Kelp beds

0

0

1

1

0

0

 

Figure 4.  Temporal pattern of records of selected PMF habitats for the Forth and Tay SMR.

Status and trend in grey and harbour seals

Grey seal pup production at the major breeding sites – Isle of May and Fast Castle Head – has been monitored biennially and has shown an increasing trend in numbers and their status is assessed as ‘few or no concerns’.  In contrast harbour seal numbers have suffered an historical decline of around 95% since the early 2000s although since 2012 their numbers are little changed albeit at a much-reduced level and their status is assessed as ‘some concerns’. 


[1] Records from International Bottom Trawl Surveys from MSS.

[2] Records of seabirds during breeding season only, from BTO Bird Atlas.

[3] Records of birds during the non-breeding season, from the BTO Bird Atlas

Climate change

There is good evidence that climate change is driving changes in the physical, chemical and biological conditions of the marine environment but the current evidence base limits the ability to draw conclusions at the scale of the individual marine regions, including Forth and Tay SMR. This is a combination of the lack of comprehensive spatial coverage of key monitoring programmes, the relatively short time series, and the complex linkages of climate change impacts in the marine environment.

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have caused more energy to be trapped within the Earth’s atmosphere, land and ocean. Approximately 90% of this excess energy has been absorbed by the ocean, resulting in warming ocean temperatures (see Temperature assessment and Climate change Sea temperature assessment).

The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide, one of these greenhouse gases, has the additional consequence of driving a reduction in the pH of the ocean, a process known as ocean acidification (see Ocean acidification assessment and Climate change Ocean acidification assessment).

Mean sea level is rising due to increased contributions of freshwater from melting of land-based ice (glaciers and the polar ice sheets) and due to thermal expansion of water (see Sea level and tides assessment and Climate change Sea level assessment).

The warming temperatures also result in lower oxygen concentrations due to fact that warm water holds less oxygen and changes in stratification further influence oxygen concentrations (see Dissolved oxygen assessment and Climate change Dissolved oxygen assessment). Together with increased metabolic rates in organisms resulting in increased respiration, oxygen depletion has a severe impact on marine organisms due to the impact on metabolic processes.

These changes in the physical environment are also having an impact on marine life, such as changes to their metabolism, changes in seasonality and the timing of events in natural cycles, and changes in their distribution. These changes have consequences for the growth, survival and abundance of species, including those of commercial importance or critical to conservation objectives.

At present, most of these impacts are assessed at scales greater than marine regions. The Community Temperature Index combines species temperature affinity and their abundances. This index has the potential to inform how communities change due to climate change. An example of changes in the Community Temperature Index from bottom-living fishes can be found in the Fish section within Biological Impacts of Climate Change, where more information on other impacts in marine food webs can be found (such as seabirds and marine mammals) on large regional scales in Scottish waters.

Sea surface temperature in the Forth and Tay SMR has increased since 1870 by 0.05 °C per decade on average.  The rate of increase has not been constant, and in the last 30 years (1988-2017), the rate of change in temperature was +0.21 °C per decade.

Tide gauge records from around Scotland’s coast show a high degree of year-to-year change in coastal water levels (typically several centimetres). The long-term average mean sea level change in the Forth and Tay SMR, as estimated from a historical climate model run (UKCP18), was 4 cm (likely range between 1 and 7 cm) higher in 2018 than the 1981-2000 average. For reference, the Scottish average is estimated to be 5 cm (likely range between 3 and 8 cm). By 2100, mean sea level in the Forth and Tay SMR is anticipated to be approximately 34 cm for a medium emissions scenario (UKCP18 RCP4.5; see also and Climate change Sea level assessment).

Detecting and understanding long-term change in biological time series is complex and resolving that which is due to climate change remains a challenge. Although trends in plankton lifeform abundance have been observed for some SMRs/OMRs, the short duration of the plankton time series (only 2010-2017) in the Forth and Tay SMR prevents an assessment of climate change impacts (see Plankton Assessment).

Offshore renewable energy is an important component in respect of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.  In 2018 the total installed wind capacity in the Forth and Tay SMR was 7 MW.

Summary

The Forth and Tay SMR contains a number of important freight and passenger ports.  There has been an 8% increase in freight tonnage but a 93% decrease in passenger numbers over the five years between 2014-2018.  Marine tourism and recreation are growing areas with a 32% increase in GVA.  There are a number of small fishing harbours that are important for the inshore shellfish fleet.  Other active sectors include renewables, waste disposal, military activity, water abstraction and ship building.

The five main pressures affecting the SMR are Removal of target species, Removal of non-target species, Physical change, Surface / sub-surface abrasion / penetration, and Underwater noise.  Other pressures identified are Introduction of non-indigenous species and Litter.

Nutrient inputs to the Forth and Tay SMR are some of the highest of any SMR although there is no evidence of eutrophication in this SMR. Contaminant (i.e. PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs and heavy metals) concentrations are generally above background but below levels that might cause adverse biological effects.  Of most concern are lead, mercury and PCBs.  Litter and microplastics are present with a mixed picture of some items increasing whilst others are decreasing.  There are few noise data, but noise levels are expected to rise as wind farm developments progress.  Three bathing waters were classified as Poor, whilst in terms of Food Standards Scotland ratings 33% were assessed Class A, 50% Class B and no areas had prohibitive levels of E. coli.

Two new MPAs were designated between 2012-2018.  Spatial management measures were under discussion for four.  (Note that the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA was designated in December 2020.)  48% of the seafloor is predicted to have been subject to high physical disturbance and 13% subject to none.  There have been significant improvements in the knowledge of seagrass beds in this SMR and some improvement relating to kelp beds.

In the last 30 years sea temperature has risen by 0.21 °C per decade.  Sea level in 2018 is estimated 4cm higher than the 1981-2000 average.